Trump leading Biden in 6 swing states, including NC

According to a fresh presidential poll from Wall Street Journal, Republican former president Donald Trump is leading Democrat President Joe Biden in six of seven swing states deemed critical to victory in the 2024 general election.

Conducted March 17-24, surveyors polled 600 registered voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. In addition to Biden and Trump, the survey included polling questions related to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who just achieved ballot access in North Carolina via the We The People Party, and additional third party candidates.

Trump and Biden are both underwater in all seven states when it comes to favorability, but not at the same depth. The incumbent is much farther from the surface, with no favorability ratings among the seven states exceeding 39%, and nearly 60% viewing him unfavorably. In North Carolina Biden stands at 35% favorable, 60% unfavorable.

While RFK, Jr. has achieved ballot access in several states, up to a third of voters surveyed didn’t know enough about the candidate to rate him favorably or unfavorably.

Overall, the favorability ratings translate into a statistically significant lead for Trump when respondents were asked who they would vote for if the general election were held today. The question was posed both as a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden, and also as full ballot hypotheticals that included third party candidates with and without RFK, Jr.

Head-to-head, Trump leads Biden in North Carolina 49-43, respectively, representing Trump’s largest lead among the seven states surveyed. Wisconsin is the only state Trump did not lead in this category, where the tow candidates tied 46-46.

A ballot hypothetical including the Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian candidate Lars Mapstead, as well as independent candidates RFK, Jr. and Cornel West shows a steep drop off for Biden in all but Wisconsin. With the addition of alternate candidates, Trump (42%) slips only one point in North Carolina, while Biden slips a full nine points (34%). Biden does edge out Trump in Wisconsin in this scenario, but he trails in total among the seven states 36% to Trump’s 39%.

This speaks to a question on the minds of political observers across the nation: Which candidate is helped or hurt more by an RFK, Jr. third party candidacy? These particular results suggest RFK, Jr.’s presence on the ballot hurts Biden much more than it does Trump, with the Kennedy family scion earning around 11% of the vote on average.

Take RFK, Jr. out of the line up and Trump extends his vote share in North Carolina while the gap between Trump and Biden closes by only one point, at 45-38, respectively.

Notably, job approval ratings for each of the Biden and Trump presidencies show the former underwater in all seven swing states, including 37% approval to 63% disapproval here in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, voters viewed the approved of the job Trump did as president in all but Arizona (48-49) and Wisconsin (49-49). North Carolina voters approved of the Trump presidency 52% to 47%.

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