WASHINGTON, D.C. – ‘The economy, stupid,’ as James Carville would say, and it’s one of the most looming of reasons that Democrats are desperate to impeach President Donald Trump before the election. It is captured in an historically accurate election prediction model that suggest he’ll win, and win ‘Bigly.’
Moody’s Analytics 2020 Presidential Election Model takes into account economic variables like consumer disposable income (pocketbook), the stock market, and unemployment in predicting winners. What sets apart the Moody’s Analytics models and their predecessors from similar efforts is a focus on regional economic growth that produces state-by-state projections of the Electoral College outcome.
Since its inception in 1980, the model has correctly predicted the winner and even matched electoral ranges of victory of every presidential race except for one. Which one did they miss? The model didn’t see Donald Trump coming in 2016. Like many others, this model also discounted their turnout variable. When they adjusted it, the model corrects itself.
Though rougher roads could always lie ahead, there is little arguing the economy is running strong and that will have an outsized influence on the electorates mood going into election day.
“Under the current Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook, which does not forecast any recession, the 2020 election looks like Trump’s to lose,” the authors wrote. “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but, under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.”
So even this model predicts a ‘normal’ turnout that may sleep on the Trump campaign’s ability to turn out voters all over again. Plus, the Democrats impeachment hyperventilation may animate more opposition than it does their base.
So, if the economy holds and an economic crisis doesn’t hit before election day 2020, Trump looks assured of resounding victory that may even out do his first. The ‘pocketbook’ model of this analysis puts Trump at 351 Electoral College votes! If that were to happen, Democrats’ heads may just start spontaneously combusting.
Read the full analysis by Moody’s here.