9TH DISTRICT US HOUSE NC – A new Civitas poll out on the race for U.S. House between Democrat Dan McCready and Republican Mark Harris shows the Democrat ahead by a healthy amount in what was a Republican held seat.
“If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Harris? Democrat Dan McCready? Or Libertarian Jeff Scott?
Mark Harris (R) 36%
Dan McReady (D) 43%
Jeff Scott (L) 3%
“This race has all the indications of being a nail-biter into November, but Republicans should be concerned with a negative 7-point spread in a district that has an R+7 rating,” said Civitas President Donald Bryson.”
That’d be a 14 point swing if those polls are an accurate reflection of what will happen on election day, and a pickup tilting the U.S. House toward the Left. The thing is, though it’s only July and this particular poll was taken the very day a hit piece emerged casting a 2013 sermon as sexist and essentially labeling a woman-hater.
First, imagine how much the landscape is going to change between now and late October. These early polls have a history of being wrong, because it’s exceedingly difficult to predict opinion flows in such a fluid information environment. Especially so many weeks out from election day.
Imagine putting a toy boat in a swift river and being asked to predict where it will be a mile downstream.
Further, there is obviously, and by design, a transitory negative spike from the hit piece on Harris. The blow-back baked into an opinion poll the day of the story breaking is near its highest rate and could subside as time goes by.
On the other hand, a hit piece and of couple demoralizing polls weigh on Harris’ campaign and supporters. And that’s exactly what the Democrats were hoping for in pushing the anti-woman Harris narrative. However there were some other data points in the poll that may be instructive in what will influence their vote in November.
“The Civitas poll also found that 25% of likely voters cited jobs and the economy as primary motivators for going to the polls this November. Following behind at 18% each, likely voters pointed to healthcare and the presidency as important election issues.”
If despite all the shortfalls of the Republican Establishment, if people ‘vote with their pocketbooks’ the party that has tax cuts, de-regulation, and record low unemployment with a growing economy attached to its reign surely has an advantage.
For now we’ll take the poll for what it is and see what the coming weeks brings as the 2018 races heat up.