Soybean farmers, one of the top five cash crops in North Carolina, continue to face pressure as a result of the trade war with China, which has been ongoing for months. Pressure is now mounting as harvest season is not far off, with farmers expecting a significant harvest, while facing the loss of their largest market (China).
“China has not placed any orders for new-crop soybeans in the current marketing year, which started Sept. 1,” Charles Hall, executive director of the North Carolina Soybean Producers Association, told the Carolina Journal. “China bought 30% of the US soybean crop in recent years. Overall, China buys 60% of the global soybean supply annually.”
Roughly 10% to 12% of the soybeans grown in North Carolina are exported, a relatively small share compared to other states. According to Hall, our biggest customers, though, are right here at home. North Carolina’s livestock industry — about 10 million pigs and up to 1 billion poultry birds, including layers, broilers, and turkeys — consumes roughly twice as many soybeans as we produce in the state.
“But soybeans are a true commodity — there is a global market, and farmers are impacted by disruptions in the global market,” continued Hall. “For example, Tennessee farmers export about 72% of all the soybeans they grow. And in the Dakotas, they probably depend on China to buy 80% or more of all the soy they produce. Farmers in the Midwest US states are feeling the impacts of the trade disruption first, in the form of depressed local prices due to grain piling up in storage and no one to buy it. The impact will drag prices down for everybody, given time.”
Hall said North Carolina farmers have diversified their exports of soybeans to other markets in Southeast Asia outside of China to look for new markets.
“In fact, we probably export 2% or less of the NC production to China, as the rest goes to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, primarily,” he said. “And again, exports account for only 10%-12% of our annual production.”
Despite their essential role, North Carolina’s soybean farmers continue to be squeezed. The cost of key inputs — fertilizer, pesticides, and equipment — that spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic has remained stubbornly high, while the prices paid for soybeans and other row crops, such as corn, have steadily declined over the past three years. As a result, many farmers are increasingly being viewed as “unbankable,” according to Hall. Agricultural lenders are becoming less likely to renew lines of credit, both in North Carolina and nationwide. If this trend continues, many farmers may not make it to next spring’s planting season.
“NC farmers certainly follow what’s happening with the crop in the Midwest, where it’s abundant and where the export channel has been disrupted,” concluded Hall. “That situation could ultimately depress the prices paid to farmers here in North Carolina.”
As the No. 1 buyer of US soybeans, China’s absence from the US market dramatically impacted the agricultural industry of North Carolina. China accounts for approximately 48% of the US’s soybean exports. In 2022, North Carolina exported $446 million in soybeans, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.
“We are thankful that USDA and the White House are planning to help farmers through this situation,” Steve Troxler, commissioner of the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (NCDA&CS), told the Carolina Journal. “There are other crops that are in a similar situation, and we certainly hope all our farmers get some help.”
According to the USDA, approximately 1.61 million acres of soybeans were harvested in North Carolina in 2024. In 2023, approximately 1.63 million acres of soybeans were harvested in North Carolina, and this was down from 1.68 million in 2022, according to a report from the USDA. Soybeans account for about 5.7% of farm cash receipts for North Carolina in 2023, according to another USDA report.
“Tariffs have priced US soybeans right out of the Chinese market,” Kelly Lester, policy analyst for the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. “It’s not that China doesn’t want to buy our crop; it’s that other exporters now offer a better deal. Markets are working as would be expected in reaction to tariffs. Trade is being directed away from the US and instead to the lowest-cost suppliers. US producers are losing ground because policy interventions like Trump’s tariffs make them uncompetitive.”
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