RALEIGH – If the respective political parties wanted voter enthusiasm, that is exactly what the seem to be getting judging by the turnout numbers in the early voting period. After Thursday, total votes cast in North Carolina are closing in on one million and will break a record for midterm elections in the Old North State.
Here’s an updated break down form Old North State Politics‘ Dr. Michael Bitzer:
North Carolina’s ‘early votes’ are on pace for a mid-term record; as of 10-26-18 for absentee by mail & one-stop/in-person:
Over 1M requests have been made;
Of those, 957K of both absentee by mail & onestop/in-person have been returned & accepted.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/OfdWCUsZQt
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
Regarding NC accepted in-person ballots (that will be the majority of absentees): as has been noted for a few days, 2018 seems more of a ‘presidential’ year than a traditional mid-term.
But, 2018’s daily total is slipping behind 2016’s daily total, as expected#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/LqteRue8W3
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
Regarding NC accepted in-person ballots (that will be the majority of absentees): as has been noted for a few days, 2018 seems more of a ‘presidential’ year than a traditional mid-term.
But, 2018’s daily total is slipping behind 2016’s daily total, as expected#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/LqteRue8W3
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
2018’s NC accepted absentee in-person ballots is at 82% of where 2016 stood this same day (reminder: one more extra day in 2018 than 2016).
Compared to 2014’s final #s, 2018 is now 84% of that mid-term’s final tally of a little over 1M absentee in-person ballots#ncpol #ncvotes
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In terms of differences in voter party registration, all 3 major groups (registered Democrat, Republican, & Unaffiliated) are running well ahead of 2014 mid-term #s, but all three groups have now dropped behind 2016’s same day #s in accepted absentee in-person ballots:#ncpol pic.twitter.com/qwP4txS2DG
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In terms of % differences between same day 2018 NC accepted absentee in-person #s & 2016’s #s:
reg Dems: down 24%
reg Una: down 11%
reg Rep: down 14%All party regs have been dropping in %s compared, so this may be the sign that 1st week rush of early voting is over.#ncpol
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In comparison to 2014’s mid-term, NC’s absentee by mail requests are 106% of 2014’s final #s; accepted 2018 absentee by mail ballots are 46%.
2018 NC absentee in-person (both requested & accepted) is 84% of 2014’s final #s.
Very likely to exceed 2014 #s overall#ncpol #ncvotes
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In looking at 2018’s accepted absentee in-person ballots, registered Democrats continue as plurality of ballots so far:
reg Dem: 43% (above their 38% in NC voter pool %)
reg GOP: 31% (above their 30% of voter pool)
reg Una: 26% (below their 31% of voter pool)#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/a8KlygjqsJ— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In looking at NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots by generational cohorts (defined: https://t.co/S4t2iLAUuw):
Mean age so far: 59 YO
Generational cohorts by voter party registration & comparison to NC’s 10-20-18 voter pool %s for each cohort:#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/C9g4xHboeW
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
With NC’s ‘blue-moon’ election (no US Senate or governor contest), major focus is on the 13 congressional districts.#s & %s of ballots from each CD, along with voter party registration %s within each district. #NC13 is only reg GOP-led district so far:#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/dyewuVznhP
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In looking at how NC’s 2018 absentee in-person voters participated in 2014, 47% of 2018 voters cast ballots by absentee in-person 4 years ago.
23% voted on Election Day in 2014 (going up)
16% registered after 2014
13% were registered in 2014 but didn’t vote#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/5PoULvQi88— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
And in breaking down the top 5 areas from the previous chart of 2018’s early voters by 2014 vote methods:
by voter party registration, both raw numbers and percentages within the vote method/registration status#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/185m70B4CI
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
And within the party registration groups as to how each party’s voters participated in 2014 (or didn’t):
Note party differences in those who have voted 2018 absentee in-person & voted on Election Day in 2014#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/m2cH6bS1nE
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
The gender divide in NC’s absentee in-person ballots now mirrors NC’s voter registration pool % for both men (45%) and women (53%):
Almost half of NC female absentee in-person voters continue to be registered Democrats.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/glCrjTufr3
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In looking at gender by ‘region’ and voter party reg within NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots so far:
NC’s ‘regions’: urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/PA7iBmVecJ
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
In terms of overall NC ‘regions’ (urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter):
their %s of absentee in-person voters so far & voter party registration within each region#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/UvZ7yoF6Qb
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
Looking at NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race & party registration:
Whites are nearly 3/4 of these early votes so far
White reg Dems are overperforming their registration %
Black/African-Americans early voters slightly behind voter pool %#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/OYzCk2kHsr
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
The daily totals and %s for NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race since the start of early voting last Wednesday.
There were limited counties & sites open this past weekend; this weekend will see more across NC. #ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/ZHMFDJdgxr
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
Daily totals and %s for NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter party registration since the start of early voting last Wednesday:
Again: this past weekend saw limited #s of counties & sites open; this weekend will see more across the state.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/W8rzrQ7ogi
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
So far, the registered voter turnout for all absentee ballot requests is almost 15% of the 7M+ NC registered voters.
Registered Democrats have a higher turnout rate so far in comparison to reg GOP & unaffiliated, but still almost another week in EV process:#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/k77xGsY3lC
— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 26, 2018
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