LLP: Signs of red wave developing in N.C. elections

[Long Leaf Politics] Conventional wisdom is that the president’s party fares poorly in mid-term elections. With Democrat Joe Biden in the White House, that appears to be shaping up for the 2022 elections in North Carolina, according to a new poll.

At this stage in the cycle, it’s more important to look at the trends than at the raw numbers. By this approach, Republicans fare well in just about every question put to voters in a poll commissioned by the John Locke Foundation.

When asked whether they would be likely to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for General Assembly, 47.5% said they’d vote for the GOP, compared with 43.8% for the Democrat.

These aren’t huge margins, but the trend is significant. Democrats tend to do well in these generic ballot questions.

Go back two years, the numbers stood at 39-37 in favor of the Democratic candidate for General Assembly in August 2019. A month later, this had opened up to 41-36.

The numbers will certainly fluctuate, and may even flip-flop over time. They did two years ago a few times, though Democrats won six out of eight generic ballot polls conducted between 2019 and 2020.

Fewer voters undecided — but what about the suburbs?

Another data point favoring Republicans is the percentage of people unsure or undecided. In August 2019, 19% told pollsters they weren’t sure. This year, that number is at only 8% and on a downward trend.


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