Renowned JP Morgan Forecaster: Infection Rates DECREASING In States That Ended Lockdown

NEW YORK, NY – A legendary researcher and forecaster for investment bank J.P. Morgan, referred to as ‘Gandalf’ on Wall Street, has released a research report showing rates of coronavirus infection actually going down in states that have ended the economically devastating lockdown policies, essentially blowing up the fear mongering narrative that outbreaks would accelerate in countries and states that reopen.

Dr. Marko Kolanovic is the Global Head of Macro Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy team at J.P. Morgan. His team is responsible for developing macro, derivatives and quantitative equity strategies, as well as systematic cross-asset portfolios for clients. Put simply, he and his team are in the business of forecasting extremely complex issues with enough accuracy to put billions investment capital behind the conclusions — and he’s VERY good.

With so much riding on the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy responses, Kolanovic has been examining and analyzing data related to the coronavirus. He came very near calling the peak in the use in early April.

CNBC Anchor Carl Quintanilla introduced the report in Twitter thread:

JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 20, 2020

Same goes for various countries, adds JPM. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented..”

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 20, 2020

More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 20, 2020

Kolanovic went on to describe some factors around the COVID-19 response that will shape narratives and thus domestic and geopolitical actions. He notes the downplaying of the virus shifting to forecasting exaggerated negatives in order to outperform, but also notes that partisan nature of the reopening issue.

… shifting the pandemic blame to China and the WHO, and .. shifting the blame for economic pain to large blue states that are perceived to be slowing down the reopening of the economy. Indeed, allowed economic activity across the country is now largely following partisan lines”

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 20, 2020

“Indeed,” the Democratic governors and mayors have taken up their position against reopening in large part because President Trump is for it. How could Democrats be in favor of something Trump is proposing? That has manifested in emerging economic recoveries in some states, forced depression in others, and a realization that reopening is not only possible, but doesn’t lead to the devastation predicted by fear mongers.

Kolanovic is also known as ‘The Man Who Moves Markets’ due to the reverence his insights have on Wall Street. It’s a respect shaped by experience as Kolanovic has so consistently called market trends that hedge funds and other investors have adopted many of his methods in gleaning insights from market noise.

There is certainly a surplus of noise these days with respect to the true impacts of the coronavirus, whether they warrant continued restrictions, and what the risks of reopening truly are. Perhaps the clear message from ‘Gandalf’ will hasten the realization that the costs of lockdowns vastly exceed the benefits.