Is NC heading for a third straight split ticket in November’s election?

Could North Carolina be headed for a third straight split ticket in this November’s general election? According to a new Elon University poll, it looks like a definite possibility.

Starting at the top of the ballot, the poll released on Tuesday shows that Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris are almost neck and neck, with 46% of registered voters going for Trump and 44% of the vote for Harris. Both were viewed unfavorably by 50% of voters.

Among male voters, Trump had a 50% favorable impression, compared with only 39% for Harris. Harris had a 47% positive impression among female voters versus 43% for Trump.

Harris had a positive impression among 72% of black voters, compared with 17% who had positive views of Trump; and, Trump had stronger favorable numbers among white voters, with 54% voicing positive impressions vs. 35% for Harris.

As mentioned in a CJ article earlier this week, about 44% of voters had very or somewhat favorable views of Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein in the race for governor compared with 30% who had favorable views of Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. As far as the negatives, 50% of state voters had unfavorable views of Robinson, while only 29% had unfavorable views of Stein.

Among female voters, 46% had a favorable impression of Stein, compared with 23% for Robinson; and, among black voters, 65% had a favorable impression of Stein, compared with 14% for Robinson.

The split results mimic election results in 2016 and 2020 when Trump won the presidential race in North Carolina, but Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper also won in both election years. Trump eventually lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden.

Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said while it’s a tossup between Trump and Harris, polling suggests a clear favorability advantage for Stein over Robinson, just not due to Stein’s own popularity.

“This is not because Stein seems exceptionally popular – his overall favorability is similar to that of Harris,” Husser said. “Rather, Stein’s 14-point favorability advantage over Robinson comes from Robinson being far less popular than Trump among both Republicans and Independents.”

Many poll watchers believe independents and unaffiliated voters are what both Trump and Robinson need to secure a pathway to success.

According to Dr. Andy Jackson, Director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, as of Aug. 26, Democrats saw a jump of 592 registrations, while Republicans gained 2,036, and Unaffiliated voters saw the biggest increase, jumping 4,237.  

As of Aug. 24, Unaffiliated voters have the most registered voters, 2,859,146, followed by Republicans with 2,273,495 and Democrats with 2,403,624. Other parties with registered voters include the Constitution Party, Green Party, Justice for All Party, Libertarian Party, No Labels Party, and We the People Party.

Despite the comparisons from the last decade, Jackson told Carolina Journal that North Carolinians have been voting differently for presidential and gubernatorial elections since 1968.

“Over that time, Republicans have won for president in North Carolina in 12 of 14 races while Democrats have won for governor in 10 of 14,” he said. “During that time, Republicans also won 12 of 17 races for United States Senator. Sometimes, the difference in presidential and gubernatorial results was quite large.”

Jackson gave the example of Republican George W. Bush’s victory in North Carolina 56-44 in 2004. In the same election, Democrat Mike Easley won the race for Governor 56-43.

“Part of that difference is due to the influence of national politics on federal elections here, with North Carolina voters sending people to Washington to counter what they see as the extreme progressivism from national Democrats,” he said. “Democrats running for governor do not have to deal with the baggage of the national Democratic Party and can more easily position themselves as moderates. While I expect the Stein-Robinson race to tighten as election day approaches, Stein has opened up a gap that Robinson may not be able to close.”

In reaction to the polling slump, the Robinson campaign sent an email earlier this week saying that the polling isn’t all that it is cracked up to be, citing polling discrepancies in past North Carolina elections.

They quoted an email sent by Brent Buchanan, President & Founder of Cygnal, which serves GOP campaigns, committees, caucuses, and center-right public affairs issue efforts.

He said Republican candidates for governor in North Carolina historically overperform polling by 7% or more on Election Day, citing the example of incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory losing by 0.2% when all votes were in, but in August of 2016, he was polling an average of 7.3% behind Democrat challenger Roy Cooper.

Fast forward to 2020, in the same timeframe of August, the letter recounts Republican challenger Dan Forest was polling 12% behind Democrat incumbent Roy Cooper, while Forest went on to lose by only 4.5%.

Buchanan said it shows there has historically been over a 7% polling underperformance between how a GOP candidate for governor polls compared to how the candidate performs on Election Day.

Leveraging that logic against current polling, he said comparing this sample to the race between Robinson and Stein, the former is polling better than, both, McCrory in 2016 and Forest in 2020. Buchanan says that means he is on track to win.

“Apply this historical polling underperformance to where Mark Robinson currently stands in the polls, and he wins on November 5th,” Buchanan said. “This even takes into account the too-positive-for-Democrats NYT/Siena poll conducted last week (that took nearly a week to field – a sign of a bad poll).”

In that poll, conducted between Aug. 9-14, Robinson had 39% of the vote compared to Stein at 49%.

One thing is for certain: With over two months to go before the Nov. 5 election, anything can happen to change the course of any race on the ballot. Indeed, in the last few months have come with plenty of twists and turns, beginning with the debate between Trump and Biden, the assassination attempt on Trump, Biden dropping out of the race, and Harris being named the Democratic presidential candidate.

People can view historical results of elections for president and governor in North Carolina, going back to 1964, when both Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson and Democrat Dan K. Moore won the presidency and governorship, respectively, on the North Carolina State Election Board website.

The post Is NC heading for a third straight split ticket in November’s election? first appeared on Carolina Journal.

 

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