RALEIGH – North Carolina was in the national spotlight during the fall and winter of 2018. The state’s 9th Congressional District was embroiled in an electoral fraud scandal that resulted in a re-do election. The fraud centered on absentee ballots, the harvesting of such ballots, and brought to the fore the acute vulnerabilities of such balloting practices.
Democrats were all too willing to inflate the scandal as evidence of ‘Republicans Bad’ instead of the fraud opportunities presented by absentee ballot harvesting.
Here we are in 2020, after months of Pandemic Panic, and Democrats in North Carolina and around the country are pushing absentee ballots with all their might. We suspect that this push is not made despite the absentee ballots vulnerability to illegal harvesting and fraud, but BECAUSE of these vulnerabilities.
And a TON of people are making those ballot requests, when compared to 2016.
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Aug. 20 NC update of requests for absentee by mail ballots.
Total among the reporting 98 (out of 100) counties: 313,224
Since yesterday’s report: +17,265
Same day for 2016’s requests: 27,955
2020 is now 11X ahead of 2016’s #s for same day#ncpol #ncvotes
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
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2020 weekly numbers generated in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots.
We’re into Week 34 (week 1 = Jan 1) of receiving requests from NC voters: so far, 21K requests.
Last week (33) saw 105K requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/R28ghliKHL
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
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2020 vs. 2016 same week by week cumulative totals of NC absentee by mail ballot requests
IMPORTANT NOTE: 2020 requests so far (313K) have *exceed* all of 2016’s requests (231,782)#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/ZQOSXv47Oi
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
The online portal to request an absentee ballot hasn’t even opened yet! That doesn’t go live until September 4, and STILL the requests are more than 10x the rate at this same point in 2016.
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To demonstrate the exponential growth in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, this chart “models” what we might expect.
Dotted lines = ‘model’ lines based on times/factor of 2016’s same week #s, estimating what could be sent out on 9/4, 1st day of mailing ABMs#ncpol pic.twitter.com/mQM2oHnYjZ
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
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Currently, NC requests are running 11 times ahead of this same point in 2016, with significant uptick in past few weeks.
IF this trend line holds at 10X to 12X model, NC could mail out between 400K & potentially 500K absentee by mail ballots on the 1st day#ncpol #ncvotes
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
Lest you think it’s an even balance of Rs and Ds requesting these ballots, the data indicates that the requests are majorly skewed toward those Kool-Aid drinkers currently donning tin foil hats, pointing fingers at the Postmaster General, and subscribing to the narrative the CODI-19 is an automatic death sentence.
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Party registrations for same day ABM request totals in 2016 vs. 2020
Same Day 2016:
registered Democrats: 10,357 (37%)
reg Unaffiliated: 7,526 (27%)
reg Republicans: 10,023 (36%)8/20:
reg Dems: 166,697 (53%)
reg Unaff: 98,384 (31%)
reg Rep: 47,238 (15%)#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/QlcVZ1i6SA— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
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All NC parties are up over this same time in 2016, but some are up “substantially more” than others.
State: 11.2X ahead of same 2016 totals as of today
Among reg Republicans: 4.7X ahead
Among reg Unaffiliated: 13X ahead
Among reg Democrats: 16X ahead#ncpol #ncvotes
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
8/
Weekly totals by party reg of 2020 NC requests for ABM ballots, starting mid-April:
So far, this week (34) #s of requests processed:
GOP = 3,821
Unaff = 6,498
Dem = 11,583#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/OO0sAdF6Ej— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
Cumulative weekly totals since Jan 1 of NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, broken down by party registration.
NC GOP Party sent out second mailer this past week with 2 absentee by mail ballot requests forms in it, likely to both GOP & Unaffiliated voters#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/PeEyA3m2wj
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
10/
Party registration %s of cumulative totals each week since Jan 1 for NC requests for absentee by mail ballots:
Middle of April (Week 14) began spread b/w reg Dems & GOP, with Unaff holding steady in their %s.
Spread b/w Dems & GOP holding; Unaff slightly down#ncpol pic.twitter.com/CVXMh05SpJ
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
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Still awaiting 2 counties (Perquimans & Tyrrell) to report; several counties are ‘catching up’ on processing their requests.
So, again, these #s could be ‘low estimates’ of what is actually out there in terms of requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.#ncpol #ncvotes
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
With Democrats driving much of the huge spike in absentee ballot requests, it is no surprise that the biggest numbers come from the very blue counties. W[o]ke County is, of course, leading the charge.
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Top 15 NC counties with their requests for absentee by mail ballots.
Wake County (Raleigh) has taken a significant lead in requests, following by Mecklenburg (Charlotte). The two counties = over 1/3 of all the state’s requests. #ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/1FeTiJenUC
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
Many of these counties are doubling and tripling their total 2016 numbers :
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Chatham County has tripled its 2016 requested ballots.
Orange, Durham, New Hanover, and Haywood have doubled their 2016 numbers.
In total, 27 out of 100 counties are above state % of 2016 ballots of 135%.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/bgL0bzlZlp
— Old North State Politics (@OldNorthStPol) August 20, 2020
In a couple of weeks, the online portal for making such absentee ballot requests will open. Moreover, Dr. Michael Bitzer (the brains behind Old North State Politics data analysis shared here), notes that the first batches of processed requests will also be sent out starting on September 4. He figures that means the first tranches of filled out, returned, and accepted absentee ballots will be making it to county boards of elections around September 11 — the arbitrary (and tentative) expiration of the current ‘Phase 2’ lockdown orders from Governor Roy Cooper.
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