Early Voting Trends in NC, ‘More Like a Presidential Year’

RALEIGH – Several days in and the early voting totals across North Carolina are proving 2018 midterms to be more akin to a presidential election year. Check out these charts from Old North State Politics’ Dr. Michael Bitzer:

Today’s thread of NC ‘early votes’ (based primarily on absentee in-person ballots requested and accepted).

So far, 525K requests have been made for absentee ballots (both mail & in-person).

Of those, 452K have been returned & accepted (both mail & in-person).#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/OgAvqy3fNK

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

Regarding NC accepted in-person ballots (that will be the majority of absentees): as has been noted over the weekend, 2018 appears to be more of a ‘presidential’ year than a traditional mid-term.

2018 running total so far currently exceeds same day 2016 total#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/hR3FEijuPZ

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

In terms of differences in voter party registration, all 3 major groups (registered Democrat, Republican, & Unaffiliated) are running well ahead of their 2014 mid-term numbers, but differences between 2018 & 2016 #s exist in accepted absentee in-person ballots:#ncpol pic.twitter.com/TXde6Y1RIe

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

So far, in comparison to 2014’s mid-term, NC’s absentee by mail requests are 92% of 2014’s final #s. Accepted 2018 absentee by mail ballots are 28% of 2014’s final #s.

Absentee in-person is 39% of 2014’s final #s. #ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/oI5zFGtEHD

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

In looking at 2018’s accepted absentee in-person ballots, registered Democrats continue as plurality of ballots so far:

reg Dem: 43% (above their 38% in NC voter pool %)
reg GOP: 30% (right at same % of voter pool)
reg Unaffiliated: 27% (below their 31%)#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/hFTB5Ggt4J

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

In looking at NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots by generational cohorts (defined: https://t.co/S4t2iLAUuw):

Mean age so far: 59 YO

Generational cohorts by voter party registration & comparison to 10-20-18 voter pool %s of each cohort:#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/GZFIoqCnUi

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

With NC’s ‘blue-moon’ election (no US Senate or governor contest), major focus is on the 13 congressional districts. #s and %s of ballots from each CD, along with voter party registration %s within each district:#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/wPls1UYA2p

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

In looking at how NC’s 2018 absentee in-person voters participated in 2014, the majority of this year’s voters cast their ballots by in-person 4 years ago.

20% voted on Election Day in 2014
15% registered after 2014
12% were registered in 2014 but didn’t vote#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/FhJftPu79c

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

And in breaking down the top 5 areas from the previous chart by voter party registration, by both raw numbers and %s within the vote method:#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/ufrHVMOqQ0

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

And within the party registration groups as to how each party’s voters participated in 2014 (or didn’t):#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/74nGjXLIRt

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

The gender divide in NC’s absentee in-person ballots almost mirrors NC’s voter registration pool % for both men (45%) and women (53%):

So far, women are 52% of NC’s absentee in-person ballots so far, with almost half of them being registered Democrats.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/BvkWTVp6uo

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

In looking at gender by ‘region’ within NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots so far:

The ‘regions’ of NC: urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter.#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/yhDMeWzZKf

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

Looking at NC’s accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race & party registration:

Whites are 3/4 of these early votes so far

White reg Dems are overperforming their registration %

Black/African-Americans are behind their voter registration pool %#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/l08y0YlAOC

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

So far, the registered voter turnout for all absentee ballot requests is at 7.5% of the 7M NC registered voters.

Registered Democrats have a slightly higher turnout rate so far, but it’s still early in the process (only 5 days of in-person early voting so far):#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/wnv3L25pGi

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

Final set of charts: I looked at the 2018 NC early voters so far (here is requested) and their voting history for ‘high propensity’ voters (who voted in all general elections from 2008-2016) & ‘presidential’ voters (only prez year voters but didn’t vote in ’10 or ’14):#ncpol pic.twitter.com/r5PEgtxbzY

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018

And here are the 2018 NC early voters so far (accepted ballots) and their voting history for ‘high propensity’ voters (who voted in all general elections from 2008-2016) & ‘presidential’ voters (only prez year voters but didn’t vote in ’10 or ’14):#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/nDojmHYGMl

— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018