RALEIGH – The plot has thickened considerably with respect to the curious voting absentee ballot irregularities and affidavits describing sketchy vote harvesting operations in the 9th Congressional District race between Republican Mark Harris and Democrat Dan McCready.
Sharp eyes have drawn attention to unusual spikes in absentee ballot requests and absentee votes in both Bladen and Mecklenburg County, that appear to be the reason behind the State Board of Elections unanimous decision to not certify the election for U.S. House.
This has led to Democrats calling for a new election, and Democrat-friendly media running with a ‘Harris must have cheated’ narrative. To be sure, the irregularities we’ll highlight below are definitely worth investigations, and referral to prosecutors for vote fraud. However, also highlighted below, the total number of votes in question would not change the outcome of the race, so why wouldn’t the Board certify the results?
Thread on @ncsbe not certifying @MarkHarrisNC9 @McCreadyForNC #NCPOL #NC9 election.
SUMMARY: There is evidence of absentee by mail (ABM) voting irregularities in Bladen AND Mecklenburg counties. Irregularities didn’t alter election result but SHOULD be referred to US Attorney. 1/— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
This chart shows the percentage of votes cast by method in each county in #NC9. Note the only two counties where more than 2.8% of votes were cast ABM are Bladen 7.3% and Meck 5.8%. 2/ pic.twitter.com/gdLJ3cCX8k
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
This chart shows the voting method statewide for the Voter ID Amendment. ABM makes up 2.6% of all #ncpol votes. /3 pic.twitter.com/hGYPpQpHJV
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
This chart shows the voting methods in the #NC12 congressional district which includes all of Mecklenburg County that is not in #NC09. 2.7% of all votes were ABM. /4 pic.twitter.com/aTCwDqHY88
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
This chart shows the margin between the ABM votes cast for @McCreadyForNC and @MarkHarrisNC9 by county in the #NC09 #NC9 #ncpol congressional race /5 pic.twitter.com/0evChoAlKG
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
Comments: Statewide 2.6% of all voters voted ABM in 2018. In 6 of the 8 counties in #NC9, between 2.0% and 2.8% of voters cast ABM ballots. In the non-#NC9 portion of Mecklenburg County 2.7% of voters cast ABM ballots. /6
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
But something odd happened in Bladen County and the portion of Mecklenburg County in #NC9. 2 to 3 times the percentage of voters utilized ABM to vote. 7.3% of Bladen and 5.8% of Mecklenburg ballots being ABM is a statistically significant. /7
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
This could be the result of an intensive and legal effort to increase ABM voting by campaigns, groups and organizations. Or legal or ethical lines could have been crossed. Regardless, North Carolinians deserve answers. /8
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
This could be the result of an intensive and legal effort to increase ABM voting by campaigns, groups and organizations. Or legal or ethical lines could have been crossed. Regardless, North Carolinians deserve answers. /8
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
The @NCSBE should seize all the ABM ballot request forms in #NC9 and turn them over to the US Attorney to investigate. They should also make sure the ballots in #NC09 are preserved and not destroyed since ABM ballots are numbered and can be tied back to a specific request. /9
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
The @ncsbe should go ahead and certify the #NC09 election because – as disheartening as the potential of irregularities might be – there are not enough ballots in question to change the outcome of the election. /10
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
Using the chart below, you can see throwing out every ABM vote for @markHarris in Bladen County wouldn’t change the election. Nor would throwing out all ABM votes in the district or in Mecklenburg county change the result. /11 pic.twitter.com/2XxngUKO7h
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
To conclude, @ncsbe is right that there appear to be ABM irregularities in #NC9 and should ask the US Attorney to investigate. They should also certify the election b/c if those irregularities proved to be fraud they’re not significant enough to change the election result. /12
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 29, 2018
One more point. As my crazy liberal friend @gercohen has pointed out Bladen County ABM in the 2016 Primary were up disproportionately and hugely for Harris over @RobertPittenger. Again not enough to change outcome but eye opening. /13 pic.twitter.com/oeDubPCA9B
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 30, 2018
There doesn’t appear to be a disproportionate share of #NCpol Mecklenburg 2016 Primary votes in #NC09 coming through ABM. This means that any ABM irregularities in Meck in General Election were almost certainly from Democratic Party ABM ballot mill.
/14
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) November 30, 2018
Definitely nothing to sneeze at in terms of suspicious activity. It puts a giant spotlight on the pitfalls of absentee voting with regards to voter fraud. Still, as Blaine points out, the race result should still be certified while the investigations (and indictments) go full steam ahead. Republicans should be united in calling for stiff punishments for any and all that knowingly engaged in vote fraud, no matter which party’s behalf the are working on.
Yet, Democrats are gleefully taking the leap that all of these apparent shenanigans are without a doubt perpetrated by Harris and feverishly calling for a new election.
Except it was just two short years ago that these same Democrats treated as absurd any questioning of results in the razor thin gubernatorial race that was won by Roy Cooper in the 11th hour with a unloading of previously misplaced votes in Durham County.
What’s the difference this time? It’s their guy that lost, of course. So now they want to nullify an election based on possible fraud that, while worrisome and worthy of investigation, would not change the outcome of the race? That could lead to some problems.
If a new election is ordered by the @NCSBE w/o evidence that any alleged irregularities would have changed the outcome of the race then those who voted legally in the race will have been denied their right to vote. The state will face a lawsuit it is likely to lose. #NCPOL #NC09 https://t.co/p4ZrVTtA4k
— Brent Woodcox (@BrentWoodcox) November 30, 2018
This all serves to remind us why having a truly bipartisan board of elections would be useful in protecting the integrity of such decisions. A board that would require bipartisan decisions, instead of the current make up in which the ‘tie breakers’ always break for Democrats. Funny how that works.
The Board is currently in closed session making decisions. We’ll update you on new developments as they come into full relief. Stay tuned.
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