This weekend’s surprise announcement by US Sen. Thom Tillis, R-NC, that he will not seek re-election in 2026 has not only shaken North Carolina politics but has also reshaped the national Democratic Party’s strategic map. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is now moving swiftly to capitalize on what it sees as one of its best Senate pickup opportunities in the country.
“We view North Carolina as one of the top-tier opportunities for Democrats in the 2026 cycle,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said during Monday media call. “That hasn’t changed, in fact, it’s become more of a priority for us now with the retirement of Thom Tillis.”
Martin’s comments reflect a sharp escalation in Democratic interest in the state, which has long eluded the party in midterm Senate contests. Tillis, a former state House speaker and two-term US senator, had been under mounting pressure from the right flank of his party for his bipartisan work on immigration and gun legislation. According to Martin, Tillis “refused to stand by and support” what he described as a Republican plan “to steal from the working class to give to the rich,” which ultimately “earned him the wrath of Donald Trump.”
Over the weekend, Trump publicly rebuked Sen. Thom Tillis over his vote against the “Big Beautiful Bill,” hinting at backing a 2026 primary challenger. The clash added pressure on Tillis, who announced shortly after that he will not seek re-election.
A Race Without an Incumbent
Strategists on both sides agree that Tillis’s retirement has blown open the 2026 race. Democratic consultant Brad Crone described the shift in tone with one word: opportunity.
“The Democrats are salivating,” Crone told Carolina Journal in an interview. “They see an opportunity with an open seat that they can compete.”
That opportunity is historically rare.
Democrats’ last successful US Senate bid during a midterm election in North Carolina came in 1998, when John Edwards defeated incumbent Lauch Faircloth. In 2008, a presidential election year that brought Barack Obama to the White House, Kay Hagan became the most recent Democrat elected to the US Senate from the state. Thom Tillis unseated Hagan in the following election cycle, in 2014.
Nevertheless, Martin and the DNC insist the tide is turning in their favor, alluding to the 2024 wins of current Gov. Josh Stein, Lt. Gov Rachel Hunt, and Attorney General Jeff Jackson.
“If you look at the population growth, the demographic shifts, as well as the electoral trends, North Carolina is certainly one of our best opportunities,” he said. “We won almost every single race on the ballot that we targeted last year in North Carolina, with one notable exception — the top of the ticket.”
Cooper weighs entering the race
Much of the Democratic Party’s game plan hinges on one major decision: whether outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper will run for the seat. Crone says Cooper is facing intense pressure from national leaders but has been personally reluctant, according to Crone.
“He has been telling people he was going to make a decision by July the first,” Crone said. “With this new equation, it may be a little longer before you hear from Roy.”
Even if Cooper enters the race, Crone says the primary won’t be straightforward for either party.
“In an open seat, Cooper could run and still face pressures from the left, the radical left, within the Democratic Party,” said Crone. “The fact that Tillis would not be running changes the equation for the Democratic primary, even if Roy does get in.”
If Cooper opts out, the party could be headed for a contentious, ideologically charged primary featuring candidates like former congressman Wiley Nickel, former congressional candidate Dan McCready, and current Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, who may be less likely than Cooper to seek a moderate public image and reject a far-left agenda, says Crone.
“It’s still a very much fluid situation on the Democratic side,” he added.
High Stakes, Polarized Climate
Meantime, the Republican primary field in North Carolina is rapidly taking shape among a base that is fiercely loyal to President Trump, a process that started even before Tillis’ announcement. Prominent figures reportedly considering bids include Lara Trump — daughter-in-law of President Donald Trump, former RNC co-chair, and a Wilmington native — who is a frontrunner among Republican voters. Other potential candidates are RNC Chair Michael Whatley, and Reps. Dan Bishop, Pat Harrigan, Tim Moore, Richard Hudson, and Brad Knott. The primary race is expected to be highly competitive.
While Republican voter registrations are on the upswing in North Carolina, coming last month within 21,000 registrations of Democrats, more voters are still registered “unaffiliated” than either Republican or Democrat. In May, the NCSBE reported that the state’s 7,522,857 voter registrations split 37.8% unaffiliated, 30.7% Democrats and 30.4% Republicans. Crone warns that, in a polarized environment, both parties could nominate candidates that alienate moderate voters.
“You’re going to end up where moderates will not have a really good choice because the nominees are going to be polarized partisans, so super conservative and super liberal,” he said.
In Monday’s DNC media call, Martin pushed back against the idea that Democrats are in their own ideological tug-of-war, pointing instead to the conflict Tillis has faced in recent years with his own party.
“Even if Thom Tillis hadn’t stepped down, he was very vulnerable,” Martin said. “Now we have an excellent opportunity to win that seat.”
Crone offered one positive point for both parties: timing. “It allows you to build a foundation for the campaign,” he said of Tillis’s early exit. “Basically you got a 60-day time frame to get the foundation of the campaign built — your website, your e-mail platform, your online donation portal, your digital communication — then start campaigning after Labor Day.”
In a hyper-partisan era, Crone added, candidates on both sides will feel intense pressure from their bases.
“What we’re seeing in our political landscape right now is a drive to hyper partisanship, to curry favor with the bases of each party,” he said. “The voter is going to have to decide what is the lesser of the two evils.”
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